The next 2 years of natural gas exports based on CSIS and EIA analysis and predictions

Environmental and political debate 

• Backlash from environmental organizations

• Argument that the projected increase in exports contradicts climate commitments made by the Biden administration

• The increase in exports is largely dependent on the elected president in 2024

• The DOE is being pushed to reassess the new LNG projects

Growth of LNG exports

• The US became the largest exporter of LNG in 2023

• Exporting reached 86 million tons in 2023

• Projects are set to double the exporting by 2028

• This increasing in export impacted the global gas system and pricing 

• LNG deals are linked to the Henry Hub price instead of the traditional oil prices, and portfolio players add liquidity to the global market

• The US LNG exports have also stabilized pricing globally, especially in Europe, where they relied heavily on Russia in the past 

Public policy and regulation of LNG

• The DOE has increased regulation under the Biden Administration, and prioritizes projects that lower the intensity of emissions 

• The Biden Administration has also tried to cut back on methane emissions caused by LNG

Current regulations and court cases regarding LNG

• The Federal Energy regulatory commission changed public policy, which requires more rigorous reviews of the environmental impacts of the current LNG products. The approval process takes much longer now and has caused delays in exporting.

Producing 

• Exports are projected to rise 2% in 2024 and another 18% in 2025

• The US has 3 LNG projects in progress to increase exports

• Golden Pass LNG 

• A joint venture between Qatar petroleum and ExxonMobil 

• Corpus Christi Stage 3 

• Cheniere Energy in texas 

• Plaquemines LNG

• By Venture Global LNG located in Louisiana

Pipeline exports and imports 

• Exports predicted to increase by 3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025

• Imports expected to decrease by  0.4 Bcf/d in 2024 but then increase slightly by 0.1 Bcf/d in 2025

• These trends are indicative of a growth economy as exporting more creates a favorable balance of trade for the United States

Net exports

• Forecasted to grow 6% in 2024 compared to 2023

• By 2025, net exports are projected to increase by 20%

LNG Export Facility Utilization

• Similar utilization of facilities to 2023 

• Maintenance in Spring and Fall, exports decline during this period

• Two Freeport LNGs will undergo maintenance in April and May 2024 

• New production by corpus christi and plaquemines 

• The first 2 trains by Golden Pass are expected by 2025

LNG imports

• Decline in 2023 due to a warm winter